As the NFL season opener kicks off, the excitement for both football fans and sports bettors is undeniable. Every year, the NFL season starts with a clean slate before bringing a ton of drama, surprises, and countless opportunities for profit.
Online sports betting has exploded in popularity, and the NFL’s status as America’s favorite sport makes it the crown jewel for sports bettors. Every year, the season opener is a highly anticipated event where every bet feels like a high-stakes gamble. That’s why, in this week’s article, I’ll tell you what to think about, potential bets and an insight into how you can approach NFL betting in the best possible way.
I will also give you my picks on every single matchup for Week 1 as well as topping things off with a couple of NFL promotions.
It’s time for another NFL season
The Favorites: Who to Watch in the Season Opener
The NFL season opener usually features marquee matchups that set the tone for the season. Betting on favorites can seem like the safer play, but smart sports betting requires more than simply backing the obvious frontrunners.
Let’s break down what to look for when you’re analyzing favorites:
Patrick Mahomes with the Lombardi Trophy after winning the Super Bowl
- Defending Champions: The Super Bowl champions often headline the season opener. While they are traditionally favorites, keep in mind that defending a title is hard in the NFL.
Over the past few years, season openers have been notorious for delivering upsets.
We saw that happen last year when the Detroit Lions surprised the Kansas City Chiefs on opening night. So while backing the reigning champs is tempting, caution is advised. Analyzing their offseason moves, player health, and preseason form is critical.
The Chiefs and Ravens are playing the first game of the season
- Key Matchups: In the season opener, the matchups are often between two heavyweights, which makes betting on the game more challenging. For instance, tonight’s opening game features the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs versus the powerful Baltimore Ravens. While the Chiefs might be the favorite, the Ravens went to the AFC Final last year.
Tyreek Hill
- Betting on Star Power: It’s tempting to bet on big-name players like Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, or Christian McCaffrey. However, focusing too much on a single player could be misleading. NFL teams are complex units, and injuries to key players or an unexpected performance from the opposing defense can easily turn any game around.
Smart Betting Strategies for the NFL Opener
1. Research Team Form and Injuries
Before placing any bets, you want to do at least some research. Early season form can be unpredictable, and injuries on key players during the offseason can heavily impact a team’s chances.
Here are some of the things you can keep an eye on:
- Preseason Performance: While preseason games don’t always reflect how a team will perform during the regular season, they will provide insights into team depth, new players’ performances, and potential breakout stars. Watch out for any significant changes in how a team plays, especially if they’ve undergone coaching changes.
- Injury Reports: Always check the injury reports. Teams often play it close to the chest with players recovering from offseason surgeries or lingering injuries. A star wide receiver or offensive lineman being sidelined could be the difference between winning and losing a bet.
- Roster Changes: Consider key offseason acquisitions and losses. Did a team give their defense a boost with a big-name free agent? Did they lose a Pro Bowl offensive lineman? Understanding these changes can help you get a grip on how teams will match up.
2. Spread Betting vs. Moneyline
When betting on NFL games, two of the most popular types of bets are the spread and moneyline. Understanding the difference and when to use each can help you make smarter bets:
- Moneyline Bets: This is the simplest form of betting — you’re simply betting on which team will win the game outright.
- Spread Betting: Spread betting assigns a points handicap to level the playing field. For example, if the Kansas City Chiefs are -6.5 points favorites, they need to win by at least 7 points for you to win the bet. Spread bets offer more flexibility, especially in games where you think the underdog could keep the game close.
Examples of prop bets
3. Prop Bets: A Fun and Profitable Option
Prop bets allow you to bet on individual performances or specific in-game occurrences. For this week’s NFL opener, you can place bets on things like:
- Player Performance: Betting on passing yards, rushing touchdowns, or total receptions can be lucrative, especially if you’ve done your homework on matchups and player trends.
- Game Props: You can also bet on things like the first team to score, total points in a quarter, or whether the game will go into overtime. Prop bets are a great way to get action on the game even if you’re unsure of the final result. Just be sure not to go too wild because prop bets can be addictive and lead to unnecessary risk.
4. Over/Under Bets: Totals Betting
Another popular NFL betting option is the over/under, where you bet on the total number of points scored by both teams. The sportsbooks set a number, and you bet on whether the total will be over or under that figure.
It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking the teams will score a ton of points on opening night but don’t get caught in the hype. Early-season games can sometimes be lower scoring as teams shake off the rust. Do your homework on team defenses, weather conditions, and head-to-head history before placing an over/under bet.
My Picks for Week 1
Will Travis Kelce score on the Ravens on opening night?
1. Kansas City Chiefs vs.Baltimore Ravens (Tonight)
The defending champions will face the Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium tonight. It’ll be a showdown between two superstar quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes but also two great teams. I expect a close game, but the Chiefs should win by a narrow margin.
Chiefs vs Ravens
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens
🏈 My Pick – Chiefs 🏈
Odds: 1.69
Eagles vs Packers
2. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers (Friday Night in Brazil)
In an unprecedented game in São Paulo, Brazil, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles square off against Jordan Love’s Packers. Philadelphia is expected to lean on its robust roster, which includes the newly signed Saquon Barkley. The Packers will be competitive, but the Eagles’ well-rounded squad and experience are my pick.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers
🏈 My Pick – Eagles 🏈
Odds: 1.77
Bengals vs Patriots
3. Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots
Bengals Win Joe Burrow and the Bengals are set to take on the New England Patriots at home. While the Patriots’ defense will pose challenges, the Bengals’ high-powered offense, featuring Ja’Marr Chase, should get the job done. I’m expecting a comfortable win for the Bengals.
Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots
🏈 My Pick – Bengals 🏈
Odds: 1.24
Dolphins vs Jaguars
4. Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami, with Tua Tagovailoa leading a dynamic offense that includes Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, will have the upper hand in this Florida matchup. Jacksonville is a solid team, but Miami’s offensive speed and defensive improvement give them the edge.
Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars
🏈 My Pick – Dolphins 🏈
Odds: 1.60
Colts vs Texans
5. Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Colts Head Coach Shane Steichen has strong beliefs in his team and I expect this to be a close game. I feel like CJ Stroud can lead the Texans to a win and quiet the home crowd.
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
🏈 My Pick – Texans 🏈
Odds: 1.68
Bills vs Cardinals
6. Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Bills, led by MVP candidate Josh Allen, will be heavy favorites against the Cardinals. Allen’s dual-threat ability should help the Bills win decisively in this matchup and the Bills Maffia will be happy.
Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals
🏈 My Pick – Bills 🏈
Odds: 1.37
Bears vs Titans
7. Chicago Bears vs. Tennessee Titans
Chicago has added key pieces to surround quarterback Justin Fields, and they’ll look to capitalize against a Titans team that might struggle offensively. Expect the Bears to get a strong start with Fields’ improved passing game leading the charge.
Chicago Bears vs Tennessee Titans
🏈 My Pick – Bears 🏈
Odds: 1.54
Falcons vs Steelers
8. Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kirk Cousins vs Russell Wilson is an old school clash. Since the Steelers can’t seem to figure things out, the Falcons should be able to take advantage of the mess in Pittsburgh.
Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers
🏈 My Pick – Falcons 🏈
Odds: 1.58
Saints vs Panthers
9. New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Derek Carr is looking forward to putting the Saints’ new offensive scheme in action and together with the defense, Carr’s veteran leadership should lead them to victory.
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
🏈 My Pick – Saints 🏈
Odds: 1.52
Giants vs Vikings
10. New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota’s explosive offense, led by Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson, will be tough for the Giants to contain. Though the Giants have shown growth under Brian Daboll, the Vikings’ offensive weapons should give them the edge.
New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings
🏈 My Pick – Vikings 🏈
Odds: 1.83
Seahawks vs Broncos
11. Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos
The Seahawks are expected to capitalize on home-field advantage against a Denver team still searching for consistency under head coach Sean Payton. Seattle’s offense, led by Geno Smith and DK Metcalf, will likely be too much for the Broncos’ defense.
Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos
🏈 My Pick – Seahawks 🏈
Odds: 1.39
Chargers vs Raiders
12. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Justin Herbert and the Chargers are favorites to beat their division rivals. The Raiders’ defense will have a tough time containing Herbert’s arm and I expect the Chargers to come out of the first week with a 1-0 record.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
🏈 My Pick – Chargers 🏈
Odds: 1.63
Browns vs Cowboys
13. Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is expected to rely on a strong defensive effort and an efficient Dak Prescott-led offense to outlast the Browns. Cleveland’s run game will keep them competitive and I believe this will be a close one. It feels like a 50/50 but I think the Cowboys could pull off an upset in Cleveland.
Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys
🏈 My Pick – Cowboys 🏈
Odds: 2.19
Buccaneers vs Commanders
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Commanders
This one is a challenge but Tampa Bay’s experience and defense should give them the upper hand.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders
🏈 My Pick – Buccaneers 🏈
Odds: 1.57
Lions vs Rams
15. Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Lions impressed everyone last year and will be taken seriously this time around. Can Dan Campbell take his team even further? I believe it all starts with a win against the Rams.
Detroit Lions vs Los Angeles Rams
🏈 My Pick – Lions 🏈
Odds: 1.53
49ers vs Jets
16. San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Jets (Monday Night Football)
The 49ers, with a stacked roster, are favored to win this prime-time matchup against the Jets and get back to the Super Bowl. Who knows which Aaron Rodgers we’ll see but it’s not going to matter against McCaffrey and the rest.
San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets
🏈 My Pick – 49ers 🏈
Odds: 1.47
Create Your Own Parlay
All these odds are available at Stake. Creating a parlay with all 16 games and winning is incredibly difficult so I suggest picking our 4-5 favorites and go for it!
Sports Betting Promos Worth Considering
NFL Stake Back
1) BC.Game – NFL Stake Back Challenge
Bet on the NFL and score weekly Free Bets at BC.Game! The more you stake, the bigger your Free Bet bonus.
How to Play
- Deposit at least $100 within a promotion week
- Place qualifying stakes on any NFL markets during the same week.
- Receive your Free Bet within 72 hours after the promotion week ends, based on your total stake:
- Stake $3,500 or more: $100 Free Bet
- Stake $2,500 – $3,499: $65 Free Bet
- Stake $2,000 – $2,499: $40 Free Bet
- Stake $1,500 – $1,999: $30 Free Bet
- Stake $1,000 – $1,499: $18 Free Bet
- Stake $800 – $999: $12 Free Bet
- Stake $500 – $799: $6 Free Bet
- Stake $200 – $499: $2 Free Bet
Terms & Conditions
- The promotion runs for 23 weeks, covering the entire NFL season.
- Earn one Free Bet per week in BCD currency.
- Qualifying deposit and stake times are based on settlement time.
- Activate your Free Bet within 30 days of receiving it.
- Use your activated freebet within 7 days on bets with odds of 1.5 or higher.
- Free Bet winnings have a 5x wagering requirement before withdrawal.
- Each FreFree Betebet can only be used on a single bet
NFL Kickoff Game
2) Stake – Points Multiplier Prize Pool
The NFL is kicking things off with a huge showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs tonight. To celebrate the occasion, Stake is running a massive Prize Pool special that will give away $1,000 for every single point scored in the match!
That means if the Ravens and Chiefs combine for 50 points, we’ll be giving away $50,000 after the game!
How to Play
- Simply place a qualifying bet on the Winner market (min. bet $25) and you’ll be in the running to win one of 1,000 equal shares of the final pool.
- Qualifying bets must be pre-match, single bets on the Winner market for the NFL Kickoff match
- Minimum bet: $25
- Total Prize Pool will be the total combined points scored in the match multiplied by $1,000
- Prize pool will be shared between 1,000 randomly selected users from the pool of eligible bettors
Good luck with your NFL bets!
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